The Duck Pond Deep End: Potential XIs for the Port Elizabeth Test

Cricket. Bloody hell.

A week ago, England were an injury and illness ravaged rabble trying to pick themselves up from twin Centurion collapses, and seemingly had no idea how they wanted to play Test cricket. But one Ollie Pope rearguard, one more James Anderson five-for, one highly impressive maiden ton by Dom Sibley, and one Ben Stokes being Ben Stokes, and the series is level. More impressively, Chris Silverwood and Joe Root have a sustainable blueprint for future Test success that doesn’t rely on miracles.

Meanwhile, South Africa have found a couple of top order batters, but are in danger of putting short-term gains ahead of a transformation process that is not only morally vital, but the only sensible policy if the game is to thrive long-term. Faf du Plessis’ pre-Newlands comments that his team ‘don’t see colour’ are in the very best light naive for someone captaining a national team in a country that was built on violent bigotry backed by the full weight of racist laws for decades. The reality of the structural inequalities in South African cricket is such that it’s almost a miracle that any black African players have made it to the top level at all.

But a handful have defied the odds, and are available for selection. So let’s look at who the teams might line up at St George’s Park on January 16.

SOUTH AFRICA

POTENTIAL XI (changes in bold)
1. Dean Elgar
2. Pieter Malan
3. Zubayr Hamza
4. Faf du Plessis (c)
5. Rassie van der Dussen
6. Quinton de Kock (wk)
7. Andile Phehlukwayo
8. Vernon Philander
9. Keshav Maharaj
10. Kagiso Rabada
11. Lungi Ngidi

MISSING OUT
Dwaine Pretorius, Anrich Nortje; Temba Bavuma

WHY
South Africa cannot long afford to ignore their transformation targets of averaging six non-white players including two black African players per XI, or even this necessary baby step on a long, long road towards a society worth the name will be rendered ridiculous.

Temba Bavuma has been told to force his way back into the team through weight of runs, and his single-figure score in the most recent first-class round means Hamza and van der Dussen are likely to get an extended run. But with Dwaine Pretorius only intermittently effective and his bowling hand heavily strapped through the Cape Town Test, and Anrich Nortje visibly unwell on the final day, there’s an opportunity to bring in the muscular bowling all-rounder Phehlukwayo and the hugely exciting Ngidi. On what is likely to be a slow Port Elizabeth pitch, their ability to get life out of unresponsive pitches could be invaluable, as could Phehlukwayo’s late-order hitting.

ENGLAND

POTENTIAL XI (changes in bold)
1. Zak Crawley
2. Dom Sibley
3. Joe Denly
4. Joe Root (c)
5. Ben Stokes
6. Ollie Pope.
7. Jos Buttler (wk)
8. Sam Curran
9. Jofra Archer
10. Jack Leach
11. Stuart Broad

MISSING OUT
Dom Bess, James Anderson; Mark Wood

WHY
England have stumbled, by equal parts luck and judgement, across a balanced and sensibly constructed top 7, and will be loath to change it having only just found it - not that there are many options in the tour party even if they wanted to tinker. So any changes will be lower down the order, and with the atypical nature of the St George’s Park surface that may be wise in any event.

Anderson was visibly hampered in the dramatic denouement at Newlands by a side injury, the prognosis for which is still not clear. With Jofra Archer fit again and coming off a 3rd five-for in 7 Tests, there’s no need to risk breaking England’s most prolific Test bowler, and so the decision of how to fit 1,063 Test wickets and Archer into the same XI can be postponed once again.

While Dom Bess did a fine holding job in the first innings at Cape Town, he struggled for impact on a theoretically helpful fifth-day pitch, and with a wicket-taking spinner more of a priority at St George’s Park where spinners average a respectable 34.89 in the last five years, if Jack Leach is well he would be a better option. The charismatic tearaway Mark Wood should be saved for the fast and bouncy Wanderers, where India had success with an all pace attack two years ago and where spinners average almost 41 and go at 3.65 RPO in the last five year.

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What had looked like being a series defined by who cocks up least often is now shaping up to be a genuine contest of skills and wills. Roll on Port Elizabeth!